Fighting the (pandemic) war whilst 'hibernating'
April 03 20
Normally in world wars, we press labour to either fight or produce the armaments that the war effort will require. Resources are fully engaged. A war on a pandemic is the 'polar' opposite - we fight by 'hibernating' labour, production and services.
March 23 20
The next wave of fiscal stimulus has been unleashed, but will it be enough to build a proverbial bridge to the post Covid-19 promised land.
RBA Enters the Fray
March 20 20
In a further escalation of the extraordinary policy responses by governments and central banks, the RBA and Government both unleashed further supports to transition businesses through the impacts of COVID-19.
Crisis Transitioning to Constructive Opportunity
March 18 20
The times require extreme prudence, but with an eye beyond the crisis.
Pandemic Mutates With Oil Crisis Geo-Politics
March 10 20
Saudi’s throw a grenade into a bloodbath. In a worrying development for coronavirus-hit financial markets, oil markets are now in crisis.
Panic, Pandemic and Effective Investment Strategy
March 05 20
Astuteness means we're master of the downside risk. We don't believe everything that's written in the newspaper.
Investment Update: Coronavirus
February 27 20
The spread of coronavirus outside China has rattled equity markets, but what is the impact for the Australian economy?
Investment Strategy - Part 5: Asset Allocation 2020
February 06 20
Fast world, fast money - it's a recipe for some. We prefer compounding money. It's a better route map.
Brexit Update: Goodbye, it’s been nice knowing you!
January 31 20
Today marks the final day of the United Kingdom’s official membership of the European Union (EU) and the beginning of a post-Brexit UK. So, what does the year ahead hold for a newly single UK?
Investment Strategy - Part 4: Manufacturing Rebound
January 30 20
As navigators we sniff the financial winds, avoiding the choppy swells.
Investment Strategy - Part 3: Stagflation
January 24 20
Inflation hasn’t disappeared, it is well hidden behind a smokescreen of globalisation.
Investment Strategy - Part 1: Bracing for Quantitative Easing
January 15 20
Peak performance is also about coming down the mountain well.
Quantitative Easing: A Two-Minute Guide.
November 27 19
In a speech last night, the governor of the RBA (Philip Lowe) outlined the central banks Quantitative Easing (QE) playbook. This is the first time he has explicitly addressed the RBA’s preferred approach to QE, making it a historic speech for the future of monetary policy in Australia.
Rejoice! Australia’s residential housing correction is over… but what next for the Australian economy?
November 12 19
High indebtedness means that conventional monetary policy in Australia will not be enough to lift the country out of economic sludge and households will continue to endure a per capita income recession - we term it, a household cashflow recession.
Intergenerational Wealth Transfer - solving for complexity with discretion
November 01 19
You'd like to know that their road will be easier than yours.
Brexit: A Two-Minute Guide
October 21 19
With the sudden uplift in Brexit activity, we have put together a two-minute guide to the current position and the likely outcomes for Brexit.
Australian Monetary Policy is now on 'automatic pilot'.
October 02 19
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the cash rate to 0.75% pa. This is remarkable because only in December of last year the RBA stated that "the Australian economy is performing well" and the "outlook for the labour remains positive".
Can Australia's economic 'green shoots' survive?
August 20 19
There are nascent signs of 'green shoots' emerging in the Australian domestic economy. The critical question is whether they can truly take hold and support meaningful, sustained economic growth.
Economically Responsible leads to Outperformance
July 26 19
Astuteness means we're masters of the downside risk.
Interest rates: Lower for (even) longer
June 21 19
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut interest rates by 0.25% to 1.25% in June, ending a 33-month streak of inaction – the longest in RBA history.
Noise vs. Meaning: The Key to Investment Happiness
May 24 19
Is the recent collapse in the share price of Company ABC a buying opportunity (noise), or symptomatic of underlying change in the company’s prospects (meaning)?
Equities: A Few Reasons to be Optimistic in 2019
February 11 19
The past 12-months have marked a turning point for global equity markets, as they experienced the first retraction in Price-Earnings (PE) multiples since 2011.
Interest-Bearing Remains Attractive in 2019
February 11 19
Interest-Bearing Securities, or Bonds, provide a key source of income and portfolio ballast to any asset allocation, an importance that has been highlighted by the market turmoil of 2018.
Property: Retail Drags Market in 2019
February 11 19
The listed property (A-REIT) market as a whole experienced a difficult 2018 as the spectre of higher rates early in the year, contracted earnings multiples.
2019 Market Overview
February 11 19
2018 has been a year of recalibration by market participants, after the goldilocks euphoria of 2017 – where all asset classes simultaneously rose.
Debt Hangover – Credit Tap Turns Off
January 25 19
Since the Global Financial Crisis, global banks have stepped back from lending to corporates as they adapt to the litany of regulatory changes and higher capital requirements.
Government Intervention: Right then Left
January 25 19
At the end of a bull market, when the gains have been disproportionately shared between ‘winners’ and ‘losers’, it is not unusual for governments to seek to interfere in an otherwise effectively functioning market.
Quantitative Tightening – The End of Easy Money
January 25 19
Quantitative easing and falling interest rates have been universally good for the holders of capital and investors. The reversal of this process is unlikely to be beneficial for investors and holds the potential to unwind the windfalls that investors have received through re-rating.
Slowing Global Growth – Diverging Fortunes
January 25 19
12-months ago global growth reached a post-recession peak as we experienced synchronised global growth across many different countries.
Good for the gander... but what about the geese?
November 02 18
The Australian economy is expanding, with GDP of 3.4% and unemployment at 5.0%. This growth has supported the increased revenues of the ganders (Commonwealth and State Governments)... but what about the geese (households)?
Volatility back in the spotlight
October 12 18
After nearly a decade of increasingly easy monetary policy, characterised by steadily declining central bank interest rates and quantitative easing – the printing of money to buy long-term bonds with the intent of reducing long-term yields – the major central banks around the world have started to tighten monetary policy.
Too much bank for your buck?
September 28 18
Properly diversifying your investment pool not only means diversification at an asset class level but also diversifying individual exposures at the security level.
Australian data blues: the reverse wealth effect
September 03 18
Retail sales for July were unchanged from June, going against hopes for a rise of 0.3%. Whilst only a monthly statistical read, it joins a number of poor monthly reads. This, combined with a fall of 0.6% in the ANZ Job Ads Survey in August, now indicates a headwind to further falls in the employment rate.
FANG by Name, FANG by Nature?
August 13 18
Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google are unquestionably (tech) powerhouses of our times. There is a lot to like about the FANG business strategies, but do their valuation and future business performance assumptions stack up?
Will the Bull Market See it’s 10th Anniversary?
June 12 18
As we approach the 10th anniversary of the current bull market, we take a look at current and historical market conditions to assess how much longer this bull market can last.
Who kidnapped Goldilocks?
February 09 18
The recent equity market gyrations over the last 10 days heralds the end to Goldilocks equity volatility, of which the hallmark has been overly-benign volatility for the last five years.
Investment Strategy - Part 2: China's Robust Adolescence
January 20 02
Lost in the euphoria of the recent Phase I trade deal between the United States and China is the underlying issue that initially led to the trade war; the rising geopolitical and economic power of China, and the corresponding waning influence (and appetite) of the United States.
In this instalment of our five-part investment strategy guide preview, we outline why we believe that further conflict between the two nations is inevitable and why it could risk an unwinding of the economic benefits derived from 30 years of globalisation.